Every autumn, I scavenge through Fangraphs, MLBTR, Depth Charts, Cot’s, and Baseball Reference in search of something, anything, that might give me some insight into what the Yankees’ roster will be the following spring. After littering the floor with crumpled 8.5 x 11 pieces of paper detailing different roster, and putting together 2 or 3 word documents as guides, I end up with something resembling an off-season plan. Obviously, my plan is always slightly unrealistic. I value some players differently than big league front-offices. I don’t necessarily know what agents are thinking of asking for their free agents, and I don’t know the wants and needs of every GM. That said, its a helluva lot of fun to plan out the off-season, and in writing, it always seems more perfect than it actually would be. Here’s my take for the ’09-’10 winter.
1. Non-tender Chien-Ming Wang. Yeah, he was an ace until his ankle rolled on the Houston basepath in ’08. Injuries have plagued him ever since, and after his most recent shoulder surgery he isn’t expected to be ready until May at the earliest. He earned $5mm this year, and would make about the same next year after arbitration. Wang definitely can be a a great big league pitcher, but the Yanks shouldn’t gamble on him when they have no idea when he’ll be ready or if he’ll pitch like the Wang of old or the Wang of ’09. The ’09 Wang had hip and shoulder problems to deal with, but that doesn’t undo his pitching this year. Those problems could linger and/or affect Wang’s mechanics, which is not something the Yanks need to deal with.
2. Deny Sergio Mitre’s option. Sergio was not impressive this year. A 6.79 ERA is not accepted in Yankeeland. Mitre has a 2010 option, which I believe is for $1.25mm, and the Yanks shouldn’t pick that up. There are better ways to spend that cash and there are better players to take Sergio’s 40-man roster spot.
3. Offer Arbitration to Andy Pettitte and Johnny Damon. Andy isn’t going anywhere else, but just in case, the Yanks should offer him arb. Andy isn’t going to go to arbitration with the Yanks though. He’ll either settle on a new deal outside of the court, or he’ll retire. Damon wants to return to the Bronx; he’s said that all year. However, Johnny had a great season this year and his agent, Scott Boras, will likely look to find him a multi-year deal. If Johnny accepts arbitration, he’d likely get a raise of $1mm to $2mm over his $13mm salary this year. Johnny isn’t necessarily worth that type of money, but he is still an effective player, and it would only be a one year commitment. If Johnny turns down arb, then the Yanks score a first round pick and a compensation round pick when he signs with another team. Either way, it doesn’t work out too bad for the Yanks. The only other Yank that made Type A or B status is Xavier Nady (remember him?), and he shouldn’t be offered arb. He would make $7mm or so, and he just isn’t worth that kind of money.
4. Let Jose Molina, Hideki Matsui, Eric Hinske, and Jerry Hairston Jr. walk. They’re all great guys that played big roles on the 2009 Yanks, but they also made a combined $18.5mm. Nady will be allowed to walk as well. Molina can easily be replaced with Francisco Cervelli. Shelley Duncan can take over for Hinske. Ramiro Pena can take over Hairston’s utility post. Matsui was a big part of the offense, but the DH spot shouldn’t be occupied by a player that can’t play the field. A DH should be able to play another position on occasion so that his teammates can take a rest from the field without taking a big bat out of the lineup.
5. Sign Ben Sheets for $8mm/1 year. Ben Sheets is a lot like Chris Carpenter, he’s either hurt or on of the top 10 pitchers in the game. Sheets isn’t durable, obviously. He’s had injuries to just about every part of him, but he also had a 3.09 ERA in ’08. He has played with now-Yankee CC Sabathia, who would surely make his transition to the Bronx a lot less rocky than it would be otherwise. He’ll just be looking for a one-year deal to re-establish himself for the market after the season, so the Yanks won’t be committing lots of years to a guy that might not be able to pitch. Add in the Yankee starting pitching depth with Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Alfredo Aceves, Chad Gaudin, Ivan Nova, and Ian Kennedy and the prospect of a Sheets injury is not as devastating as it might seem. The Yanks spent $11.5mm combined on Xavier Nady and Chien-Ming Wang this year. For less than that, they could be scoring a potential 3rd ace. if Sheets gets hurt, then the Yanks lose $8mm and call up a young starter. If he doesn’t, then a Sabathia-Burnett-Sheets starting trio could make October 2010 a month to remember.
6. Trade Zach McAllister, Kevin Russo, and David Phelps to Washington for Adam Dunn. Dunn, a power-hitting lefty, would love the short right porch in the Bronx. He isn’t a defensive whiz, but Dunn has played his whole career in the NL, and thus has played the field for his whole career. He can play first, and left, and it wouldn’t be out of the question for him to play right on occasion. He would primarily DH, replacing Matsui’s bat, but he could play first when Mark Teixeira needs a day off, or left when Damon (assuming he returns) needs a day off, or right when Nick Swisher needs a day off. Dunn will make $12mm in 2010, less than Hideki made this year. 2010 is the last year of his contract, so yet again the Yanks avoid unnecessary long term commitment. In return, the Nats get McAllister who posted 2.23 ERA in 22 starts this year. In 120 innings he racked up 96 K’s, and he’s only 21. Russo hit .326/.397/.431 this year in Scranton. With the Nats apparently set to move Christian Guzman to second and slotting Ian Desmond in at short, they’ll have some uncertainty up the middle. Guzman will make $8mm in 2010, the last year of his contract, and if playing well is sure to create trade speculation come July. The Nats are unlikely to be in the race, so cashing in on a Guzman trade will likely be Mike Rizzo’s big move of the summer. Russo will allow the Nats to do that as he can step in at second. Phelps, a 23-year-old righty from St.Louis, pitched well in 7 starts with the Tampa Yanks. His 1.17 ERA over 38.1 innings added to his intimidating 32 strikeouts. Phelps might be a few years away from the bigs, but he has impressed so far. If all went well for the Nats, by 2012 Phelps would be joining McAllister, Jordan Zimmerman, and Stephen Strasburg in a rotation that would finally get the Nats recognized in the NL East.
That’s my basic plan. The hot-stove season is very much “if, then.” If Damon and Pettitte don’t return, the plan changes. If Sheets gets a better offer, the plan changes. If Mike Rizzo nixes the trade ( That trade might be a stretch anyways. Ian Kennedy could possibly need to be added in to entice Rizzo.) the plan changes. However, if all goes the way I have it outlined, the Yanks 25-man roster would look something like this:
1. SS Derek Jeter R
2. LF Johnny Damon L
3. 1B Mark Teixeira S
4. 3B Alex Rodriguez R
5.DH Adam Dunn L
6. C Jorge Posada S
7. RF Nick Swisher S
8. 2B Robinson Cano L
9. CF Austin Jackson R
10. SP CC Sabathia L
11. SP AJ Burnett R
12. SP Andy Pettitte L
13. SP Ben Sheets R
14. SP Joba Chamberlain R
15. CL Mariano Rivera R
16. SU David Roberston R
17. SU Alfredo Aceves R
18. LS Phil Coke L
19. LS Damaso Marte L
20. MRP Brian Bruney R
21. LRP Chad Gaudin R
22. C Francisco Cervelli R
23. IF Ramiro Pena S
24. OF Melky Cabrera S
25. OF Brett Gardner L
The Yanks have a lot of depth, so you might notice that Phil Hughes, Mark Melancon, Ian Kennedy, and Shelley Duncan are not on the roster. Injuries make depth an important component of team building, but it also forces some players to play at a level below their rightful spot. The most surprising part of this scenario is Phil Hughes’s absence from the 25-man roster, but Ben Sheets and AJ Burnett are both injury prone, Andy Pettitte is aging, and Joba isn’t a sure bet for consistency, so Hughes will find his way onto the team some way or another.
In addition to all the moves listed, I’d explore trading Brett Gardner, who becomes expendable if AJax lies up to the hype. Kei Igawa could also be swapped for any type of prospect or a bad contract. Shelley Duncan might also be sent out, finally getting a chance to play every day for a big league team. The Yanks should explore other trade options as well, such as Colorado’s Seth Smith, Washington’s Josh Willingham, Oakland’s Rajai Davis, and Detroit’s Edwin Jackson. On the free agent market, the Yanks will look at Matt Holliday, Chone Figgins, Jason Bay, and Aroldis Chapman too. I don’t see them being in on John Lackey; his desire for a long term contract doesn’t seem to match up with the Yankees’ current plans. Holliday, Figgins, Bay, and Chapman will all be overpaid, which is why I steered clear of them in my plan. Sure, I’d be happy if the Yanks signed any of them, but in 5 years a Holliday or Bay contract would be more of a burden than anything, Figgins will have lost a step or two in the field and on the basepaths, and we’ll know whether Chapman’s lack of control is actually an issue or not. The same goes for a Curtis Granderson trade: he’s a nice guy and a good ballplayer, but the prospect package he’d require would likely be too much for a guy who couldn’t hit lefties if they were throwing beach balls. I stuck to low-risk moves, keeping the Yanks out of positions where they have too many immovable contracts.
