Some writers are good, others are bad, and some are, well, somewhere between the 2009 Pirates and the 1962 Mets. One such writer is Dayn Perry, who just authored a piece on why he thinks the Yanks won’t repeat. His first reason for Yankee faliure is a “lower baseline.” Using run differentials, he says the Yanks only should have won 95 games, rather than 103, in ’09. He forgets that the 2009 Yankees are a very different squad than the 2010 Yankees. Chien-Ming Wang let in 16 runs in 21.2 innings; Alex Rodriguez missed all of April, and wasn’t 100% his first month or two back; Brett Gardner, Joba Chamberlain ,Phil Hughes, and David Robertson all have more experience under their belts after ’09, and should be ready to contribute at a higher level this year; an outfield of Johnny Damon, Melky Cabrera, and Nick Swisher didn’t save nearly as many runs as a Curtis Granderson, Brett Gardner, Nick Swisher combination should; Javy Vasquez will be starting 20% of the Yanks games this year, with the smorgishboard (I know i spelled that wrong) of pitchers who started in the 4th and 5th spots now pushed to the fifth spot (and Washington, if your last name is Wang); and the Yanks have an improved bullpen that will feature Chan Ho Park, a healthy Damaso Marte, whoever loses the fifth starter competition, and a now-experienced David Robertson. So Dayn, the run differential from ’09 will be much different than those in 2010. Sure, I think run differentials are important, but they are a way of seeing how good a team was last year, not a way of predicting a team’s success the following year. A third of the lineup is different this year, and there’s no arms in the ‘pen, and a new face in the rotation; this is a different club, Dayn. Mr. Perry then goes on to talk about how the Yanks are an old, grumpy bunch of senior citizens. It isn’t like they traded out a 36 year old outfielder for a 28 year old one; or like they let a 35 year old with bad knees leave for a a 31 year old DH. Oh, and the elder statesmen of the team, Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter, aren’t both coming off their best seasons ever or anything like that. The Yanks don’t have a 20-year old hitting protege who could be called up mid-season. It isn’t like Brian Cashman has switched out Cody Ransom, Angel Berroa, Jose Molina, and Eric Hinske over the past 12 months and readied Francisco Cervelli, Ramiro Pena, and Jamie Hoffman to be their replacements. No, the Yanks haven’t done anything at all to try and get younger than the team that won the World Series last year. Dayn then talks about how brutal the AL East is. Yes, it’s the toughest division in baseball, duh. But why not write a piece about how the Rays and Red Sox will fall in the AL East? The division is tough, but in terms of who has the best roster, the Yanks are still number one in the East, not mention, you know, all of major league baseball. Perry rests his case with an “even if I’m wrong about everything, no one ever knows what will happen in the postseason” paragraph. Okay, Dayn, every team has to deal with that. It’s not Yankee specific. Regardless, pitching tends to reign king in the postseason, and the Yanks have postseason vet Andy Pettitte, a dominant ace in CC Sabathia who won the ALCS MVP, a guy named Vazquez who was one of the five best pitchers in the NL last year, and if either Phil Hughes or Joba lives up to the hype they’ll dominate in October. So the Yanks should have a fine rotation. Add in a bullpen that looks to be the best in the big leagues, and this Rivera guy who is apparently really good at closing games as the leaves change colors, and the Yanks probably even have an advantage in October.
Mr. Perry needs to stop trying to put the Yanks down with half-baked arguments with holes easier to find than the ones in Swiss cheese. Dayn, your arguments have no statistical proof that is relevant, you ignore every counter argument, and you’re just looking for a story that isn’t there. If you want to write about how you think the Yanks will flop, at least make an argument that anyone who has ever been to a ballgame will believe.
