That question, as you could probably imagine, is in regard to the Yankees’ 5th starter slot. We all know it will likely come down to Phil “Phranchise” Hughes or Joba Chamberlain, with Sergio Mitre, Alfredo Aceves, and Chad Gaudin hanging in the wings, mainly pitching for the long relief role. I would think Sergio, Ace, or Gaudin would have to have a pretty amazing showing in Spring Training to take the 5th spot away from Hughes or Joba. That being said, the Phranch and the Lord Baby will need to have very solid springs themselves if they want to start the year in the rotation. Who will win the epic winner-take-rotation-loser-take-setup-role spring battle? Let’s check out some stats…

It is common knowledge that both youngsters have shined in the set-up role and have had flashes of brilliance as starters, but haven’t shown any consistency. Hughes had a sick 1.41 ERA in 51.1 innings of relief last season. And we all know the story of Joba’s 2007. It was magical. He gave up 1 earned run (stupid Mike Lowell) in 24 innings, which averages out to a .38 ERA. His WHIP was .75. He averaged 12.8 K/9. He threw 100 miles an hour. He only walked 6 batters! No big deal or anything… Unfortunately for both of them, their amazing bullpen success hasn’t completely translated to the rotation. DISCLAIMER: For all of you “they should be in the bullpen people”, please remember that Joba and Hughes are a mere 23 years old. For the record, when Roy Halladay (best pitcher in the game Roy Halladay) was 23, he started 13 games and had an ERA of 10.64. So can we all please settle down and give the two kids a chance to do what the were drafted to do? Start? Ok now that I’m done with that little rant, here are their stats as starters. Joba started 12 games in 2008 and had a 2.72 ERA. His 2009 was kind of rough. His 4.75 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 76 BB, and 4.3 BB/9 didn’t impress anybody. Again though, he showed flashes of brilliance. Remember that stretch after the all-star break, when he gave up 2 ER in 23.2 innings? The kid can certainly pitch, he just needs a little more breaking in. It was only his first full year as a starter. As for Hughsie, he has had less success in the starter role. In 2007, he had a 4.46 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 13 starts. He started the season in style, carrying a no-hitter into the 6th against Texas before injuring his hamstring. He didn’t pitch very well after the injury. Then again, he did have some quality starts in the September of that year. His next season was pretty awful. He started 8 games before getting demoted to the minors. His 6.62 ERA and 1.71 WHIP gave the Yanks good reason to send him right down.

Clearly, the Phranch and the Lord Baby have not yet matured in their roles as starters. That is not to say that they won’t. They are both very promising young pitchers who need a chance to fully develop as pitchers. They have been able to have such great success in the ‘pen because their flaws aren’t revealed. Major League hitters are going to be able to hone in on a pitchers flaws when they  face them multiple times in a game and they have the chance to see all of their pitches. It becomes much easier to mask flaws in the bullpen, where a pitcher can just hurl his best stuff without holding back.

I’ve kind of wandered away from my main question. To answer that, I think Joba will be the 5th starter to open the year. He was already stretched out last season, and I don’t think the Yankees would be able to stretch out Hughes enough in ST to prepare him to be a starter. I really think Joba just needs some time to figure it out and pitch without “Joba Rules” and innings limits, and I think the Yankees saw enough good things to give him the opportunity to do that. If Joba has a rough go in the opening months though, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Phil jump right into the rotation. Again, it all comes down to Spring Training, and we are mere weeks away from it! Get pumped!