Randy Winn, Nick Swisher, Curtis Granderson, Brett Gardner, Jamie Hoffman, and Greg Golson will be fighting throughout the spring as Joe Girardi decides who makes the roster, who starts against lefties, and who stands where.
Brian Cashman left us all scratching our heads when he signed Randy Winn. Nobody (at least nobody worth listening to) thought that Matt Holliday or Jason Bay would be trying on the pinstripes in 2010, but the vast majority of the baseball-educated populace thought that Reed Johnson (now a Dodger), Xavier Nady (now a Cub), or someone else who didn’t hit .158 against lefties in ’09 would be signed. Randy Winn has been an above-average player throughout his career, but a .158/.184/.200 split against lefties in ’09 isn’t what fans were expecting from the new Yankees signee. Granderson is easily fooled by southpaws, and Winn isn’t the platoon player we all hoped for. I’m not going to pull-up Randy’s careernumbers, because what he did in1999 won’t tell us anything about the kind of hitter he is today. Going back a couple years though, Randy hit .289/.343/.470 against lefties in ’08 (182 PAs), and .351/.399/.535 against ‘em in ’07 (204 PA), so he’s not exactly sinistrophobic. If Randy hits like he did in those two years, he’s a fine platoon partner for Curtis, but if he has an ’09 repeat…well that’s two million dollars down the drain.
I looked at Fangraphs to see if there was a statistical explanation for Randy’s weak ’09 campaign. I found a few things:
1. Winn’s batting average on balls in play was down to .314. He’d hit .346 on one’s he smacked in play in ’08, and .332 in ’07. Unfortunately, that alone doesn’t tell us if he was just hitting balls weaker, or if he was unlucky, or what. Expect his BABIP to bounce back to somewhere between his ’09 and ’08 rates.
2. Winn’s ground ball to fly ball ratio was down to 1.42 after a 1.71 in ’08 and 1.65 in ’07. That indicates that he was hitting under the ball more, rather than making solid contact and sending balls whizzing by the infielders. Kevin Long should be able to fix that problem pretty easily. Winn needs to get that ratio back to 1.50 or 1.55 if he wants to avoid the Mendoza line.
3. Randy’s HR/FB % was 1.4. In ’08 it was 6.5% and in ’07 it was 9%. That’s further evidence that Randy was hitting under balls, with little force or power. Likely, his swing became more of an uppercut than a level or downward swing. Easily fixable. Randy has always been a singles/doubles hitter who’s gotten away with line drive homers, and it seems like he was trying to please crowds with the long ball more so in ’09 than concentrating on solid contact.
4. I think Randy needs a new eyeglass prescription. He swung at 26.8% of pitches outside the strike zone this past year, after only chasing 22.3% in ’08 and 20.6% in ’07. His 64.7% contact rate was his lowest since he arrived in San Fran (he’s been a Giant since ’06). Add those numbers to what we established in points 2 and 3 about Randy hitting under the ball, and the problem might just be that he’s misreading pitches. Sure, my earlier theory about an upward hack as opposed to a level one could be right, but its more likely that Winn is just not picking up on pitches like he used to. It could honestly be as simple as that, a new contact prescription and Winn might be right back to being a strong player to have on your team.
Even if Winn is having trouble seeing the ball at the plate, it hasn’t affected his play in the outfield. In 104 games in right field, Winn had a UZR/150 of 17.4. In left he appeared in 54 games and has a UZR/150 of 40.6. Remember that UZR/150 is averaging out a fielder’s play over 150 games, so that second number might be slightly misleading. Regardless, Winn plays strong defense, which is a plus. He’s been primarily a rightfielder over the past three seasons, so naturally I’m curious as to whether he and Curtis Granderson should play there, and Nick Swisher should man left. I made it clear that I think Brett Gardner should be in center a few weeks ago. I ‘m not a big enough statistical expert to analyze position choice perfectly, but I know this: the right field walls are closer to home plate than the left field walls, so there’s more area to cover in left. Winn’s speed is much better than Swisher’s, as is Granderson’s, so it seems like Nick should stick to fielding position number 9.
The Yanks, it seems, will carry 5 outfielders on the roster, since Jamie Hoffman was a Rule V pick who must be returned to Los Angeles if he is taken off the 25-man for any non-injury reason. Baseball America’s John Manuel ranked Hoffman the best defensive outfielder in the system so he’ll be a possible late-inning defensive replacement for Swisher. Hoffman is speedy too, and could be used in a Fredi Gonzalez pinch-runner type roll at points too. Personally, I think he can do something with the bat too. He hit .284/.360/.455 in 68 triple-A games in ’09 (not to mention .307/.457/.495 in 29 games at double-a). He hit ten homers across the two leagues. No, he’s not Jesus Montero or anything, but there’s a good chance that Hoffman is one of the better surprises of 2010. He’s a right-handed hitter, which, though I can’t find his splits, might mean he can fill-in for Curtis against lefties (that is, if the 2009 Randy Winn shows up to camp instead of the Winn of old).
Brett Gardner might be the biggest wildcard of the entire outfield crop. People love to hate on the gritty outfielder, but .270/.345/.379 with plus-plus defense and 26 steals in 31 attempts are pretty good numbers for a guy who people seem to think won’t ever be a solid big leaguer. Sure, pitchers might know how to approach Brett better in ’10, but he’ll know how to hit them better too, and with his plate discipline he’ll be a valuable part of the club. When he gets on base he either moves to second, or distracts the pitcher like a laser pointer at the movies. If he can get on at a .340 clip or better, Brett will be a really valuable part of the club. If the haters are right, and he hits like .230/.300/.320, well then he’d probably have some fun back in Scranton.
The recently acquired Greg Golson is going to start the year at triple-A, but an injury, a Hoffman disappointment and subsequent return to LA, or an offensively clueless Brett Gardner could lead to his promotion. He’s a toolsy type, like Gardy and Hoffman: known for his speed and defense, while his bat is a wildcard. The 24 year old was rated the “Best Athlete,” “Fastest Baserunner,” and “Best Outfield Arm,” in a strong Texas organization before the ’09 season. Seeing as Elvis Andrus was a part of that system, fastest baserunner and best athlete are pretty strong statements.
The Yanks know that Nick Swisher is going to be starting practically every game. Curtis Granderson will start every game against righties, and if he figures out the whole lefty-on-lefty thing, then he’ll play everyday. Brett Gardner needs to prove he deserves a spot in the lineup, and Randy Winn needs to prove that he’s not washed up. Jamie Hoffman holds his own destiny in his hands, as anything less than a 25-man roster worthy performance in the spring will send him back to being the apprentice of Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Manny “Steroids” Ramirez. Greg Golson wants people to think he understands the whole “hitting” thing and justify being the first “in-case of emergency” player to take the bus trip north. We know the names that will make the roster, barring any extreme surprises, but the spring will be about finding out where those names play (the Granderson/Gardner centerfield debate just won’t end), which will start (Winn and Gardner will jockey for playing time), and who is called in when (does Hoffman pinch run, or does he go home so that Golson can rack up the steals?).
