6Pound8OunceBabyJoba

Okay, I made some deadline picks way back when, but let’s make some more…up to date ones here. ( To note…I’ve struck out on all of them thus far). Here’s what I’m looking at:

Brad Hawpe to the White Sox. The Rockies should be playing Seth Smith in right field every day, and Jason Giambi can play first until they get Todd Helton back. Those two elder statesman aren’t in their prime by any means these days, but they can handle first at least for the rest of this season. Meanwhile, Chicago is looking for someone that gets on base and has a little thump. Brad Hawpe hasn’t been his old self this year, but he still has some promise.

Ted Lilly to the Phillies. I called this way back when, and I still think it’ll happen. The Phils need another starter (Haren and Lee are off the table, and Oswalt is looking expensive), Lilly could help them down the stretch. They’re only 3.5 out in the East and 2.5 out in the Wild Card. Lilly’s contract expires at the end of the year, but he’d be serviceable down the stretch for this ballclub, and wouldn’t cost too much, prospect-wise. As for the Cubs, they’ve got no incentive to keep Lilly..so why not take in a couple prospects for him. Just on a PS note, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Phils go after Fausto Carmona or Jake Westbrook instead of Lilly…in which case I’d expect Lilly to go to either Queens, Dodger Stadium, or Cincinatti (in-division! gasp).

Carlos Zambrano to the Mets. I suggested this a while back (based on speculation over at MLBTR), and it was actually discussed a good bit on WFAN today…Big Z for Ollie Perez and Luis Castillo. Perez and Zambrano are both in the doghouse with their respective clubs, the Mets should be looking for some upgrade over Castillo anyways…it just makes sense to me.

Adam Dunn to the Yanks. Look…the Yanks have been on the perimeter of the Dunn talk all year, and he is a perfect fit for Yankee Stadium. That said, few people expect the Yanks to make a big move right before the deadline for a guy who can’t play the field, but doesn’t want to DH. Well, who saw the Teixeira signing coming? Or the Yanks moving to the forefront on Cliff Lee and Dan Haren? Or even the Jerry Hairston Jr. deal last year? Cashman is about as stealthy as a GM can be, and I think he’ll view a Dunn acquisition as the final piece in a lineup that can just about crush any opposing pitcher come the playoffs. Just a thought…

Scott Podsednik to the White Sox. They would get Hawpe to plug in at DH, and then Ozzie Guillen can pencil in old favorite Podsednik in left in place of the abysmal Juan Pierre. Hell, maybe Pods could play center, with Alex Rios and Carlos Quentin patrolling the corners.

Kosuke Fukodome to the Braves. ATL needs a center fielder, Cubs want to get rid of Fukodome…just makes sense. I bet Chicago has to eat some contract though…

Scott Downs to Cincinnati. The Reds would like to add to the Rhodes-Cordero punch at the end of the bullpen, and Downs could do just that. The Red Sox and Yankees aren’t going to pay the prices that Toronto’s floating, but I bet they lower said price for an NL Central team.

Jason Frasor to New York. The Yanks might not get Downs, but I could see them going with a backup plan and taking Frasor from Toronto. He’s nothing special with his 4.66 ERA…his 3.37 FIP and 3.89 xFIP point to a possible improvement, and his 9.54 K/9 rate is nice  (his 4.42 BB/9….not as nice). He’s an easy backup plan from Downs, but not exactly a huge upgrade. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see a Farnsworth reunion in the Bronx…

Kelly Johnson to STL. I made this pick last time, and I still like it.

Luke Scott to San Diego. Again, a repeat pick, but the AL Player of the Week would add a nice bit of offense to a San Diego team that needs it.

At this point, I don’t think Roy Oswalt or Prince Fielder are moved by the 31st. Fielder will be dealt this winter; Oswalt rumors will go down to the minute, but nothing will happen (See 2009 Roy Halladay). I expect him to be traded over the winter as well, though. (Also, my sleeper winter trade candidate is Chris Carpenter who I think STL will move as they try and clear some cap room.

Well, let’s see what happens. As America’s favorite announcer would say “You know, that’s the thing about baseball, you just can’t predict it. You really just can’t predict baseball.”

So I don’t want to talk about the Yanks futile attempts to get hits off Josh (name?) Tomlin, or A-Rod’s quest for 600, or the trade deadline, or blah, blah, blah. Let’s step back and just look at 25-names. These are the 25 names that I think will be on the Yanks’ Opening Day 2011 roster. I’m not giving explanations, or trade scenarios, or any of that jazz, just names. So, here’s my way-too-early prediction about something that really doesn’t matter until after this year’s World Series.

1. C Jorge Posada

2. C Jesus Montero

3. 1B Mark Teixeira

4. 2B Robinson Cano

5. 3B Alex Rodriguez

6. SS Derek Jeter

7. LF Carl Crawford

8. CF Brett Gardner

9. RF Curtis Granderson

10. OF Nick Swisher

11. SP CC Sabathia

12. SP Cliff Lee

13. SP Chris Carpenter

14. SP Phil Hughes

15. SP AJ Burnett

16. CL Mariano Rivera

17. RP Damaso Marte

18. RP David Robertson

19. RP Sergio Mitre

20. RP Mark Melancon

21. RP Alfredo Aceves

22. RP Jon Albaladejo

23. RP Boone Logan

24. OF Eric Hinske

25. IF Eduardo Nunez

People are all “Marcus Thames and Juan Miranda aren’t a good enough platoon at DH,” “The Yanks should get Adam Dunn or Jayson Werth,” “The Yanks need another hitter.” Okay, we get it: the Yanks all-time hits leader, an MVP candidate second baseman, a guy with a 42 game on-base streak, a guy with 599 homers, one of the game’s best offensive catchers, the most likable center and rightfielders in baseball, and one of the speediest left-fielders in the game isn’t enough to satisfy the average Yankee fan. Dunn or Werth or Prince Fielder or Brad Hawpe or Jorge Cantu would all be nice acquisitions in theoretical lineups, but most don’t seem realistic. Okay, I could see Hawpe/Werth/Dunn….but they’re all a stretch (Stretches…grammar police…how do I phrase that? Anyways….) I see the merit in a short-term rental to bulk up the lineup. I totally get it. I just, don’t know if it’s worth giving up blue-chip prospects for one of those guys when there might be an internal solution waiting to rise to the Bronx (alongside Jon Albaladejo…who had a perfect outing in his return to Scranton).

Said solution’s name is Jesus. No, not suggesting prayer books; I’m talking about Jesus Montero, the powerful slugger who alm0st brought Cliff Lee to the Bronx.

Jesus has a .469/.541/.875 line over his last ten games (with 3 long balls). For July as a whole he’s at .379/.493/.672 (4 long balls). Montero can catch (although that is the…weakest aspect of his game). This is my idea: promote Jesus and have him and Jorge split time at DH and catcher. What about Frankie Cervelli? Well, I love the guy with the alien-ish helmet, but his bat has been library-level quiet as of late. I guess, in theory, the Yanks could carry 3 catchers and send down Juan Miranda (and release Chad Gaudin and recall Jon Albaladejo). Jesus struggled early this year, but now he’s hotter than Hansel and a call-up might just be the solution to this DH-problem…if you can even call it that. I don’t know if calling him up now would be “too early” and if Montero might struggle (a la Mike Stanton/Justin Smoak). If he’s an instant success though (like Carl0s Santana and Buster Posey) he could make a big impact on the lineup. It’s just a suggestion, but seems to make sense to me. Maybe the Yanks should wait a week or two, and if Jesus is still mashing, then make the call. Just something to think about.

Happy Birthday Mr. Alexander Emmanuel Rodriguez. The Big 3-5, looking for a bigger 6-0-0. A-Rod has grown up a lot since his 34th birthday, a World Series ring, some clutch homers, and a realization that the game is about winning, not setting records. The A-Rod of old would be trying to swing for the fences now for 600, which would lead to a big struggle, but Alex is 5 for 16 in the games since he hit 599. I’m an official A-Rod fan nowadays, and I hope he gets the milestone tonight as a little birthday celebration.

Sergio Mitre is heading back to the ‘pen, with Dustin Moseley now starting in lieu of Andy Pettitte for he time being. This, I think, improves the bullpen, where Mitre has had success. Sergio can probably go multiple innings, but just not enough, in Joe Girardi’s mind, to be making starts. On a side note, the Yanks need to release Chad Gaudin (yes…I am going to suggest that in every post until it happens).

Apparently, Peter Angelos (owner of the Baltimore Orioles) doesn’t want to trade with the Yanks, according to Jon Heyman. To me, that’s a dumb decision on Angelos’ part. Send a veteran to New York who will be gone after this year, and possibly get a young guy that will haunt the Bombers for years to come? Baltimore’s not going anywhere this year…why not trade in-division? But, whatever…not like his Orioles haven’t done anything successful in over a decade, due in part to his decisions…oh, wait….

Rumors courtesy of MLBTR courtesy of SI.Com courtesy of Jon Heyman plus rumors courtesy of ESPN.com courtesy of Jayson Stark.

Apparently, the Yanks love Joakim Soria…they even quote on quote “dangled” Jesus Montero in an offer for the young closer. That seems a little much to me…I’d hope they would be getting Soria plus if they were to deal Montero…he’s worth more than a setup guy, no matter how good that setup man might be. KC didn’t bite though (Really? Even  with Montero being mentioned?).

I’m not a fan of Dayton Moore, since he mostly doesn’t know what sabermetrics are, overpays for guys like Kyle Farnsworth, and generally has done very little right at the big league level in Kansas. It might be overboard to say he’s ruining a grand old franchise, which is why I won’t say that…I’ll just imply it. Basically, moral of the story, it has to be hard to negotiate with a guy who values batting average, but not OBP…and finally he has the best “hitting” team in baseball (ie. batting average), but his squad is 42-56…weird. Maybe he should check out fangraphs, or a Bill James book, or hell, even Moneyball at some point.

In other news, the old Ty Wigginton, Jhonny Peralta, and Cody Ross names have been tossed about…I’m okay with the latter two, not a fan of Wigginton…not with his month-by-month decline. The Yanks have chatted about Mr. Adam Dunn who is, in theory, a perfect fit at DH for the Yanks. His lefty-power would be absolutely perfect in Yankee Stadium, he gets on base like its no big thing, and, well, I’m just a big fan I guess. I mean, c’mon, Jeter-Swisher-Tex-Rodriguez-Cano-Dunn-Posada-Granderson-Gardner doesn’t intrigue anyone else? He’ll likely cost a bit too much though, and word has it that he’s the subject of chit-chat on a “Dunn to the N. Side of Chicago, E. Jackson to Washington, young arms to Arizona” rumor. [Sidenote: the Granderson trade doesn't look too hot for AZ right now. Maz Scherzer has been dirty for the Tigers (and my fantasy team) as of late while Edwin Jackson has been...to say the least...bleh. Ian Kennedy has impressed, but I'd still rather have Scherzer.] I don’t think that highly of E. Jackson, so I’d bet the Yanks could put together a better offer than just E-Jax, which is what it seems AZ is offering. Then again, the Nats are known to really like Jackson, and I’m no talent scout, so I might very well be wrong.

The Yanks aren’t going after Roy Oswalt….they were only in on Dan Haren because they thought they could get him cheap. They weren’t going to offer any Montero-ish prospects for the struggling guy who I thought was going to win the Cy Young way back when I made pre-season picks. Jon Heyman tweeted that the Yanks like Ted Lilly…but I’ve read otherwise, and I just don’t buy it. Pettitte is acting like he’ll return quicker than expected, so if his absence is down to 5 starts more (or maybe just four) it really isn’t worth it to deal for Lilly, who doesn’t demonstrate an upgrade over anyone in the rotation not named Sergio.

I stand by my stance (redundant…sorry) that Jon Albaladejo should be on the big league squad, and that the Yanks should try to deal for Scott Downs if the price doesn’t sky-rocket too high. Chad Gaudin needs to go already, really, what are they waiting for. Hasta Luego Chad. Chan Ho Park isn’t super promising either. And, even though I think Joba will straighten things out soon, for now he’s a seventh inning guy and David Robertson should be working the eighth to get ready for Mo. Those are my mid-season moves that make sense….those and maybe a trade for a bat.

So, the Yanks call-up Jon Albaladejo. He pitches twice, totaling 2.2 innings, one earned run, 2 hits, a walk, and 3 Ks….and then they send him down. He did exactly what he was supposed to, didn’t give any reason to doubt that he couldn’t adjust back to the show, yet he gets sent back down when Mitre needed a roster spot. Meanwhile, Chad Gaudin has a 5.49 ERA in his last 10 outings, a .310 avg. against on the year, a 1.62 WHIP, and has allowed 10 homers in 42.2 innings. Everyone keeps complaining that the bullpen is a weakness, then you finally get an easy fix, and you send him to the minors while keeping your worst pitcher on the major league roster? What am I missing? Why is Chad Gaudin still a Yankee? I really and truly do not understand. And don’t say “oh, he can pitch multiple innings” the Yanks have Dustin Moseley to do that, D-Rob and Joba can go two, as could Albaladejo. Park sucks after his first inning, but he is a former starter. This is just a plain, dumb move. You can’t expect to go on and win the World Series without fielding your best team. Pack Gaudin’s bags, and get Albalajo back ASAP.

When the Yankees traded for Nick Swisher two offseasons ago, they expected a low average, high OPB, and power hitter. They had good reason to expect this, as Swish had never had a season where he hit over .262, fewer than 21 home runs, and (outside of 2 off years) an OPB under .371. Well Swisher continued that trend in his first year in pinstripes, hitting .249 with 29 HRs, and a .371 OPB. This season though, something is very different about Nick Swisher. The power is still there, as he has 17 HRs so far. OPB? Check. He boasts a .376 OPB 90 games in. So if you guessed that AVG was the thing that made him a different hitter, YOU ARE CORRECT! Swish his hitting .306, which is by far the best of his career. Granted, it is just past the first half mark, but Swish hasn’t hit like this in the first half of any season… In the first half of 2005, his first season as a regular starter, Swish had a .246 AVG. In 2006, he hit .258 for the first half. In 2007, 2008, and 2009, Swisher hit .263, .235, and .237, respectively. So what is different about this year? Well for starters, his BABIP is way up. He has a .344 BABIP, compared to last seasons .272. His line drive rate is up 5.3% from last year, which could explain the elevated BABIP. His ground ball rate is down about the same amount, and his fly ball rate is about the same. So with the elevated average, Swisher obviously becomes a more valuable player. Though he is getting on base at roughly the same clip, the fact that he is getting more actual hits gives him more opportunities to drive in runs, which is the goal. If you think about it logically, Swish getting more hits means that his extra base hits are on the rise, which means that he should have better chances at scoring runs, which is even more so the goal.That makes sense right?

So anyway, go Swish! Lets see if he can keep up this high AVG.

After being declared the favorite to land Dan Haren, the Yankees will most certainly not get the Arizona ace. It was announced today that Haren was traded to the Angels for Joe Saunders, Patrick Corbin, Rafael Rodriguez, and a player to be named later. According to Nick Piercoro, the PTBNL will be a top prospect chosen from a short list of available players. Haren is having a sub-par year this year, posting a 4.60 ERA (a career high as a regular starter), a 1.35 WHIP (another career high as a regular starter), a .350 BABIP (another career high), and a 3.91 FIP. The Angels needed to do something, as they are 6 back from the Rangers, who just acquired Cliff Lee to seriously improve their rotation. They better hope Haren turns it around if they want to catch the Rangers.